New Season, Same Challengers

The title race may have been non-existent, but last season was the most competitive Premier League season in recent memory. Very little separated the top teams from the midtable teams, just a couple of star names and a boatload of extra depth. The final league placings reflected that balance, as did the yawning chasm between 17th placed Spurs and the three relegated teams. The slim margins between success and failure were exposed in the unexpectedly low finishing places for two of the league’s financial powerhouses. More on them later. Instead, for now the champions are under the most scrutiny.

New Look Champions

Following last week’s Community Shield disappointment, Liverpool kick-off the season off with as many questions as answers. They won the league in imperious fashion last time out. Arne Slot added an extra tactical dimension to a squad rebuilt over previous seasons by Jurgen Klopp. This summer marks a far more consequential transition. The club have spent heavily on attacking talent following the departure of several key players. Yet, the tragic loss of the late Diogo Jota still leaves them understaffed in this area. Certainly, they look better placed to cope with the Afcon-enforced absence of Mo Salah than in the past. They were dangerously reliant on Salah and the departed Trent Alexander-Arnold last season. The signing of Florian Wirtz gives them another creative option.

Instead, it is in defence where the questions arise. Liverpool were missing several key deep-lying midfielders during their Community Shield defeat. The transformation of Ryan Gravenberch was perhaps Arne Slot’s biggest achievement last season. He ably covered for an increasingly inconsistent Liverpool back four, the flaws of which were brutally exposed against Crystal Palace. Virgil van Dijk is still a capable leader, but has become increasingly error prone. The rest of the Liverpool defence was signed this summer, or will be once Marc Guehi inevitably makes his way to Anfield. The success or failure of Liverpool’s title defence will rest on how quickly the new back four gels.

Given the scale of the personnel changes, it looks as though this season will be the transitional year that we were expecting from Liverpool last term. Following key departures elsewhere, the Reds do now have the best squad on paper. However, the same competition is further ahead in the rebuild process. Any early season inconsistency could cost them the league. In that respect, the Club World Cup will help both Chelsea and Manchester City in their title chases. Liverpool are rightful favourites though, but it will be much closer than last year.

Guardiola Re-invented

Manchester City are in the unexpected position of outsiders. They shouldn’t be. City have spent heavily this year, but all their business was done early in preparation for the Club World Cup. In doing so, they looked to have filled some of the midfield holes exposed by the continuing absence of Rodri. Pep’s weakness has long been an over dependence on a single pivot player. In recent month’s we’ve finally seen signs that he has overcome that problem. Nico Gonzalez and Tijjani Reijnders provide options that have been lacking for several seasons. It will also allow City to become a more rounded team, less dependent on suffocating possession.

Expect City to get a fast start. They’ve had time to gel, which has always been an issue for Pep. They looked unbeatable in the Club World Cup, until their shock exit at the hands of Al Hilal. That result was once again due to their critical vulnerability to quick counter attacks. It’s the same weakness which cost them the FA Cup final in May. Unlike the last few years though, City should be able to overcome that weakness by outscoring their opponents. Their attack has been very inconsistent recently, especially against low blocks. All too often they’ve been dependent on raw wingers and re-purposed centre backs for goals. Their new signings address that problem by providing more variety and penetration against stubborn defences. The additional summer matches could cost them though. Don’t count out Pep’s ability to rotate and manage minutes will keep them in the title mix until the final day. It will prevent them from being burnt out by the lack of an off-season break.

One Step Further

Chelsea also attended the Club World Cup, emerging as world champions. They have the depth to challenge for trophies on all fronts. However, their best chance of further silverware is probably once again in cup competitions. For all their spending, they still lack top quality in defence and midfield. The conference league helped them to get away with that weakness last season. They won’t be able to rotate so heavily in the Champions League. Attacking reinforcements will help offset that issue up front. They won’t be totally reliant on Cole Palmer for goals. However, expect a wave of unexpected upsets when injuries start to bite. They are a much weaker team withou Romeu Lavia, Moises Caicedo or Wesley Fofana. Alas, none of the those players can be relied upon to stay fit. Re-purposing Reece James is only a stopgap solution. As such, I still expect to see a fast start followed by another winter collapse. They should be strong favourites a top four finish though.

Then there is Arsenal, who look to be targeting yet another second place finish. Mikel Arteta looks to have recognised the attacking failures of last season. There will be a stylistic transition to a quicker and more direct attacking approach, spear-headed by the high profile capture of a new striker. The most important signing though is that of Martin Zubimendi. He will orchestrate from deep, relieving the overburdened Martin Odegaard, who should once again be able to contribute further forward. They might even have signed cover for Bukayo Saka. Too much of their goal threat came from Saka last season, which completely killed their season when he was injured. If Gyokeres facilities additional contributions from elsewhere on the pitch, then Arsenal could pip Liverpool and City for the title. The Gunners do still have the best defence, an advantage which has probably only been enhanced over the summer.

Return of the Big Six

Rounding out the big six is Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur. Both had disastrous seasons last year mostly due to unsuitable tactics and a chronic lack of depth. Spurs have fixed the tactics with the appointment of a new manager, but haven’t fixed the lack of depth. They will be a real threat, particularly with Paulinha in the team to reinforce the defence. However, their fringe players are all young and unproven. That cost them the European Super Cup in midweek, and will hamper them over the course of the season. They should still have enough quality to challenge for top four, but inconsistency will ultimately cost them. Top six looks a real possibility though.

Meanwhile, United haven’t fixed the tactics, but have brought in a new front line that will be much better suited to Anorim’s style. The goals and individual attacking flair of the new players will propel them up the table. Their weaknesses in midfield and fullback will only push them so far. Pre-season has proved that the squad now understand how Anorim wants to play, which was a major issue previously. It’s also shown that they’re still short of the right blend of defensive players, particularly once the starters are substituted. Missing out on Europe, will be a major blessing for them in that respect. The additional goal threat of Bryan Mbuemo should be sufficient to put them in European contention. Whether they get over the line will be down to how well Benjamin Sesko adapts to the Premier League.

Weakened Pretenders

Elsewhere, Newcastle’s summer has been a disaster, due to their constantly missing out on top targets. However, they haven’t yet been seriously weakened. Newcastle’s season will be judged by the future of Aleksander Isak. They haven’t been able to sign a suitable replacement for him, but have strengthened in midfield. Antony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey should improve the squad immensely, and will allow them to cope better with Champions League football than last time. If Isak stays then they have the quality to finish in the top six once again. Without him, they lack the quality up front to punish the best teams.

Aston Villa have arguably had am even worse summer. They’ve yet to strengthen their first team. That could cost them significantly, given the scale of reinforcements elsewhere. Even Forest have strengthened, although they are unlikely to match the over-performance of last year. Instead, the team most likely to break the mould is Everton, but only if injuries are kind to them. The Toffees are the only midtable team to have properly strengthened compared to last season. The signings of Jack Grealish and Kiernan Dewsbury Hall will significantly improve the volume and quality of chances created. Questions remain about the quality of their strikers though, which could hold them back. Combined with the already solid defence, we could see David Moyes once again mixing it the big boys. Some things never change.