New Season, Turbulent Times

As the new Premier League season kicks off, it’s not a question of whether Arsenal will retain their Premier League title. Instead, the question is by how much. Rarely has there been so hot a favourite, and for good reason. The champions have strengthened, chastened by a humiliating Champions League final in May. Meanwhile, their closest rivals have been weakened by the departure of key players and managers.

Beyond Defence

Arsenal struggled going forward last season. Much of that was due to injuries, but they were far from dominant. Early in the season, that were carried by set pieces. Later on, they ground out results through defensive resilience. With Saliba injured, their defence will be weaker. It doesn’t matter. Even a weakened Arsenal defence is still the best in Europe. Ezri Konsa is elite cover, but he lacks the half decade of understanding built up with Gabriel. That kind of chemistry will affect the big games, the most consequential of which will take place after Saliba’s return to action.

Fortunately, a reinforced midfield will more than compensate. Arsenal have struggled to break down mid blocks for several years, even against Championship opposition. Quick ball progression has been painfully absent, leading to lots of slow sideways passing. Corners aren’t much help if you’re stuck on the edge of the box. Zubimendi helped a bit with this in the autumn, but not as much as expected. Bruno Guimares offers a more proven ability to break the lines, having been Eddie Howe’s lynchpin of Newcastle team. That leaves Zubimendi as first reserve, which is shocking given he’d walk into any other Premier League starting line up.

The New Era

Constant reinforcements have put the champions in an enviable position. For years, Arsenal lost the title due to poor depth. The tables have since turned. Arsenal have added top class players to an elite first team. Now it’s their rivals struggling when injuries strike. It’s not even clear which of those rivals will offer the closest title challenge. Both Liverpool and Man City have lost key players, and look woefully short of depth as a result. Both have new managers, and it’s not clear whether those managers can carry out the required rebuild.

Enzo Maresca will struggle with an unbalanced Man City squad, which has attacking flair alongside an inconsistent defence. More pressingly, it lacks star power in midfield. Elliot Anderson and prospective partners have big shoes to fill. This season’s City team may resemble last season’s Arsenal team in their methodical approach as well as in their weakness against a packed defence. Expect some bad runs to dent their trophy push, but their attacking stars should carry them into the top 4.

Iraola will struggle with consistency at a Liverpool side which lacks attacking depth and defensive consistency. Much will depend on the rest of the transfer window. It’s not clear who will support their elite front two in attack. Their high press will require rotation from players not yet in the building. At least their defensive signings have been sound though, which should keep them in the European places. Last season’s flops will need to step up in order to retain their Champions League place. They’re more than capable of it. If Liverpool can sign the wingers needed to reinforce Ekitike and Isak, then a cup run is realistic.

Time for Underachievers

Elsewhere in the North West, Manchester United have made a series of dull but sensible signings to reinforce their woeful midfield depth. The likes of Tielemans and Santos should allow them to be competitive across all competitions, but are not enough to sustain a trophy push. United over performed at the end of last season with a manager who often struggled to adapt to adversity at Middlesborough. They will spend the season in top 4 contention, although their ultimate finishing position will depend on the success or failures over others.

Chelsea are the real wildcards. Xabi Alonso has a point to prove, and the managerial nous to do it.  The arrival of Morgan Rogers reduces the creative burden on Cole Palmer. The departure of Cucarella will be masked by Alonso’s tactics. Enzo Fernandez’s future is the great unknown. His ball progression and midfield leadership are matched only by the injury prone Reece James. A title push is possible but unlikely. It’s worth remembering that Enzo Maresca had them at the heals of last season’s contenders prior to their mid season collapse. Expect the same again, but Alonso will provide the staying power so lacking last time. Expect them to pip at least one of the Manchester clubs to top 4 place.

Pretenders in Transition

Then there are the big spenders. Last season’s relegation battle has spurred Tottenham Hotspur into signing a new team. De Zerbi has been backed with signings capable of sustaining a European push. Much will depend on how long the signings will take to gel. For all their struggles in recent years, the defence has remained solid. It was in attack that they struggled. The return of James Madison alone fixes that problem, and should propel them into Europa League contention given the weakened competition. A light schedule will allow them to challenge the top 4. Inconsistency is inevitable, but don’t rule out a cup run to go alongside Champions League qualification.

Spurs are not the only challenger undergoing a rebuild, but financial muscle has given them a head start over their peers. For varying reasons, the mid table teams are all much weaker. A season of transition at Villa will take them out of top 4 contention, particularly given a couple of key long term injuries. They will be back challenging next season though. Newcastle have much deeper problems, and it’s not clear of the ownership have the interest to challenge the elite. Their new coach and new signings are relative unknowns. A regression into a competitive mid table will continue. 

The fate of the remaining mid table teams is uncertain. Last season’s overachievers lack the squad depth to sustain a European run. They will fall back into the pack as a result. Forest and Leeds have both made sensible signings. Replacing the departed Elliot Anderson will limit the ambitions of the former, but there should be no repeat of last season’s relegation battle. One of the them could make an unexpected push for a European place. As could Everton, who were derailed by injuries to key players last year. Instead it is Fulham and Palace who could be looking nervously over their shoulder. The promoted teams have a big gap to bridge, but they’ve all signed the players to do it. Don’t rule out a surprise relegation.